The Space Tourism study was based on the responses of 226 individuals with a net worth over $5 million, and space enthusiasts with lower levels of net worth.  They estimate that there are about 2,400 US residents who would be willing to purchase a seat for between $95,000 and $200,000 and that 40% of them would actually fly over a 10 year period. The result is a baseline forecast of about 240 US residents per year. Additionally, researchers, film-makers, space enthusiasts and reward trips would slightly increase the forecast. Currently, the lowest price ticket has increased in price from $95,000 to $150,000 since the 2012 report. A robust market might increase the number of potential flyers to about 1,000 per year while a modest forecast is for around 200 seats. The 50% increase in ticket cost will probably reduce the number of likely participants.

 

There are presently spaceports licensed for horizontal rocket planes in New Mexico, California, Oklahoma, Houston, and Midland Texas. Using currently planned vehicles, only Blue Origin could operate from Spaceport Camden, however, they have committed to Canaveral. Sierra Nevada Corporation is developing a 7 passenger vertical launch Shuttle-like spacecraft that could launch from Camden but would have to land elsewhere.

 

The predictions of Space Tourism availability described in the 2012 Tauri/Space Florida study have not materialized. There are no operational vehicles, no passengers, and no revenue.

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLOSED SURVEY PARAMETERS

1. Survey of 226 US individuals with greater than $5M in investable assets.

2. Because survey results on hypothetical spending overstate willingness to purchase, used multiple questions to validate interest and likelihood of purchase.

3. Based on survey, only 4% of high net worth individuals have ever spent $100K per person on leisure trip or experience.

4. Interest in suborbital flight

   1. Extremely or very interested in taking a suborbital trip.

   2. Likely to purchase a suborbital trip (alone or in addition to other spaceflight options).

   3. Willingness to pay $100K or more for a suborbital trip.

   4. Ranked a suborbital trip highly compared to other options.

5. Performed cross checks on total population determining likelihood of purchase.

   1. How much imagine spending (per person) on a once in a lifetime trip ($100K threshold).

   2. Most ever actually spent (per person) on a past trip ($50K threshold in baseline).

6. Predicted demand based on survey results applied to global population with $5M+ net worth (~3,000,000).

7. Additional 5% to account for demand from individuals with lower net worth.

8. Estimated likelihood of flying in any given year based on 25 years per individual.

9. Growth scenario relaxed past spending requirement, constrained scenario increased requirement.

 

All quoted data is single sourced from the Tauri Group.